F2006: World’s Largest Forecasting Conference

Whether you're making automobiles, selling swimwear or recruiting college students, the ability to accurately predict demand for products or services represents an increasingly valuable tool for businesses, schools and government organizations.

Issues facing practitioners in the rapidly expanding field of forecasting were the subject of SAS' inaugural F2006 Business Forecasting Conference, held June 5 and 6 at SAS world headquarters in Cary, NC.

The gathering brought together some of the most respected forecasting experts in the world, with 334 registered attendees from 35 states, five countries and 120 different business, government and academic organizations. SAS hosted this event – the world's largest forecasting conference of the year – to help organizations analyze and streamline their forecasting processes, and improve forecasting results.

"F2006 improved attendees' critical eye for both the statistical and the process side of forecasting," says Mike Gilliland, Product Marketing Manager at SAS.  "The conference takeaways were powerful. Attendees learned which techniques and processes work best and returned to their offices with new ideas for more efficiently achieving objectives."

Sharing best practices
Networking opportunities abounded for participants, who included analysts, managers, directors and business executives, as well as scientists and researchers with Ph.D.s. Practitioners appreciated exposure to academic theory and the practical examples and applications of the latest research. Academics became more familiar with the real-life issues facing today's forecasting practitioners.

"The conference provided broad opportunities for idea-sharing," adds Gilliland. "For example, the call center staffing solution at a financial services institution could be applied directly to an airline's reservation center or a retailer's store staffing problem. The new product forecasting approach used at Warner Home Video can be tried by apparel or automotive manufacturers, electronics retailers or government agencies."

Forecasting experts led discussions of the latest software and statistical techniques, although many sessions were geared to people who work in nontechnical areas and focused on the forecasting process.

Keynote presentations
Among the outstanding presentations was a keynote address by Paul Goodwin, Ph.D., from the University of Bath (UK), who spoke on "Combining Management Judgment with Statistical Forecasts for Improved Accuracy." He described how statistical methods and expert management judgment can bring complementary benefits to the forecasting process. However, such judgment can be subject to both inconsistencies and biases. He then demonstrated a range of methods designed to allow judgment to play an effective role when used in combination with statistical forecasts.

In another keynote, Sven Crone, Lancaster University (UK), explained the best ways to incorporate the effects of external events into demand forecasts. He noted that management judgment must play a major role when the event history has not been properly recorded or the expected future event is not thought to be similar to those seen in the past. He concluded with a discussion of software enhancements that could help company forecasters improve their estimates of the impact of events.

Hands-on exhibits
The F2006 exhibit hall was full and busy. IBM and SAS staffed a unique exhibit where attendees took a "test drive" of SAS® Forecast Server on an IBM® p5™ 550 server. Attendees were invited to send their company data in advance of the conference and then view it running through SAS Forecast Server. The test drive enabled attendees to observe the functionality and speed of the SAS software and IBM hardware combination, and it let them assess the level of forecast accuracy they were likely to achieve.

"The Forecast Sever test drive was a big hit," says Jim Ferris, who leads the SAS Forecasting Practice. "We conducted test drives with 26 attendees – many who were from large global corporations. Attendees appreciated the chance for hands-on use of the solution accompanied by those with technical and business expertise. Based on attendee response, SAS and IBM plan to offer this exhibit in the future."

Many took advantage of the on-site forecasting training sessions following the conference. SAS is already planning its second annual business forecasting conference, F2007, to be held June 4-5, 2007, in Cary.

SAS® Forecast Server
SAS has been the recognized leader in forecasting software for more than a quarter-century, with more than 4,000 unique customers licensing SAS forecasting products worldwide.

In November 2005, SAS released SAS Forecast Server, which added the new SAS Forecast Studio GUI to the SAS High-Performance Forecasting engine. SAS Forecast Server automatically chooses the best forecasting model, optimizes the model parameters and produces the forecasts – even accounting for seasonality and intermittent data, both of which are common in many industries.

For example, graphical displays offer retailers an understanding of the effects of holidays, marketing events, sales promotions and unexpected events such as weather, improving the ability to plan effective sales promotions and marketing events. Already a favorite with users, SAS Forecast Server was named one of the "Trend-Setting Products of the Year for 2005" by KMWorld magazine and was also selected the "2005 Communications Solutions Product of the Year" by editors of Technology Marketing Corp.'s Communications Solutions magazine for excellence in technological advancement.

The world's leading business forecasting experts gathered at F2006 to share ideas for streamlining forecasting processes and improving results.